Arthur Hayes Forecasts Crypto Market Slump After Trump’s Inauguration

With Donald Trump set to take office in January 2025, many in the crypto world are excited. There’s talk of quick policy changes that could boost the market. But Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has a different prediction. He believes the market may be in for a downturn after Trump’s inauguration.

Crypto Expectations vs. Political Reality

In a blog post published on December 17, Hayes expressed caution. While the market expects Trump to make immediate changes, Hayes doubts that can happen quickly. He pointed out that political processes move slowly, especially with crypto policy. 

Hayes doesn’t think national Bitcoin reserves will be set up soon, as many have hoped. He argued that the crypto market might wake up to this reality in January. With limited time to push changes through, Trump’s administration could struggle. 

Maelstrom’s Strategy: Selling Now, Buying Later

To prepare for this, Hayes’ investment fund, Maelstrom, plans to reduce some positions. They’ll trim their holdings early in the year, hoping to buy back at lower prices later. 

Hayes believes many long-term investors are underinvested, and many crypto holders sell too soon. By lightening up on certain positions, Maelstrom hopes to benefit from the market recovery later in 2025.

Despite his cautious view, Hayes acknowledged the strong crypto rally since Trump’s election. Bitcoin surged past $100,000 in early December. But Hayes sees a correction coming. He expects a “harrowing dump” around Trump’s inauguration, followed by a potential rebound in the second half of 2025.